Let’s break down the Chiefs’ season from a gambling perspective, including their future-book odds, season win total and playoffs to date. On Saturday, we’ll take look at the Buccaneers.
The Chiefs opened as 7/1 favorites for Super Bowl 2021 even before they won Super Bowl LIV when the Westgate SuperBook opened its futures on Jan. 13, 2020. They were also the 7/2 faves to win the AFC. The Chiefs were lowered to 9/4 to repeat as AFC champs and 9/2 to repeat as Super Bowl champs after their title run. Unlike the Buccaneers, the Chiefs’ future-book odds remained pretty constant through the offseason, and they entered the season about 2/1 to win the AFC and 4/1 to win the Super Bowl. They were also installed as prohibitive -450 favorites to win the AFC West.
Season win total
As the defending champs and clear-cut favorites to repeat, the Chiefs were also given the highest win total of 12. That’s a huge number, and many people made a case that it would be hard to exceed their 12-4 record from last season with bull’s-eyes on their backs. However, the Chiefs started 4-0 before losing to the Raiders in Week 5 and then went Over 12 when they improved to 13-1 with their 33-27 Week 14 win at Miami.
Record: 14-2 (AFC West winner, No. 1 record in AFC, No. 1 in NFL); ATS record: 6-9-1 ATS, net loss of 4 units; Over/Under: 8-8
The Chiefs consistently rewarded backers during the first half of the season despite usually laying a lot of points. They started 6-2 ATS, with their only non-covers being a 23-20 OT win at the Chargers in Week 2 and their Week 5 loss to the Raiders. But then they burned backers’ money the rest of the regular season as they went 0-7-1 ATS despite winning all but their Week 17 game. (Some people had the Chiefs -2.5 in their 32-29 win at New Orleans in Week 15 and thus have the Chiefs covering and going 1-6-1 ATS down the stretch and 7-9 ATS on the season.)
Record: 2-0 (AFC champions); ATS record: 1-1 ATS, loss of 0.1 unit; Over/Under: 1-1, loss of 0.1 unit either way
The Chiefs earned the AFC’s lone first-round bye, so they opened their postseason run with a 22-17 win over the Browns but didn’t cover after closing as 8-point home favorites. In the AFC Championship game, they were 3-point favorites over the Bills after Mahomes was cleared from concussion protocol, and they won and covered 38-24. Their first game stayed Under, and the second game flew Over.
Splits and trends
SU record as favorites: 15-1 (including playoffs); ATS record: 6-9-1, net loss of 3.9 units; Over/Under as favorites: 8-8
The Chiefs were underdogs only twice all season — Week 3 at Baltimore and Week 17 at the Chargers while resting starters. Their only loss as chalk was the 40-32 loss to the Raiders in Week 5, but they have a losing record ATS. It should be noted that the 3-point spread in the AFC Championship game was the lowest spread they were asked to cover except for the push in the Week 15 win at New Orleans.
Away from home
Away record: 8-0 SU, 3-4-1 ATS; Over/Under (road games): 4-4
Tampa Bay is the first team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium, so some consideration should be given to the Chiefs’ performance on the road.